Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
